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Preliminary Feasibility Study


Needs Assessment

City of Page Economic Development Needs - A long time vision has been to expand the economic base to reduce the communities dependency on warm water recreational activities.   Recently the City of Page participated in a program that resulted in a Strategic Plan for economic and community development that encouraged among other things collaboration and a new way of thinking as we transition into the New Economy. 

Recently the State of Arizona has created an Arizona Partnership for the New Economy in which communities are challenged to understand their unique challenges, consider the experience of others and customize their own economic strategies appropriately.

Tourist Needs - Tourists are increasingly seeking out educational travel and adventure experiences.    This trend is expected to continue at a rapid rate especially with high numbers of well educated baby boomers seeking new travel adventures.  Increasing forms of technical entertainment has raised the expectations of young and old alike who now expect more and more to be dazzled with their spent entertainment dollars.

General Public - Proper and accurate scientific interpretation on many scientific issue is wholly lacking.  Newspaper and media accounts often contain inaccuracies and may oversensationalize certain limited aspects of discovery while neglecting many other aspects of important scientific value.  Scientific interpretation is a critical part of science that is often overlooked.  Most research is public funded and yet information does not always flow back to the public in a consumable manner.   Interpretation is a two way street that usually benefits both the lay person and the scientist alike. 

Paleontology Research Needs - The field of paleontology is wholly under-funded.  Field excavations are time consuming and not nearly enough professionals are available to adequately address new finds as they came in from the field.  Funding from National Science Grants has become increasingly difficult and competitive.  Fully 70% of grant applications are now rejected for lack of funds.  Proceeds from the Science Center would be used to help fund field research and encourage public participation in such projects.

Educational Needs - Improved the quality of scientific education in rural school districts, foster an awareness of the Earth Science and engage students in the scientific thought process.   Increase # of students pursuing science degrees and regional colleges and universities, especially native Americans.  Increase enrollment at Coconino Community College.


Marketing Assessment

Visitation to Grand Canyon - Visitation has remained closed to 5 million annual visitors at the Grand Canyon even in the face of increased entrance fees and higher gasoline prices.   Visitation in the year 2000 held steady at 4.9 million the same as 1999.

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Visitation to Glen Canyon Recreational Area - 2.6 million people visited the Glen Canyon National Recreational area in 1999. 

Visitation to Carl Hayden Visitor Center - Visitation at the Carl Hayden Visitor Center was 916,000 for the year 1999.  Visitation was highest in August and lowest in January.   The breakdown by month.

Jan -  14,000       Feb -   16,000         Mar -   46,000
Apr-   62,000      May - 110,000        Jun -  124,000
Jul - 142,000      Aug -  146,000       Sep -  140,000
Oct -  75,000      Nov -     26,000       Dec -    15,000   

Retail sale of goods from GCNHA was just short of $500,000 in the year 2000.  The retail floor space at the Carl Hayden Visitor Center is very limited and the inventory product line is also restricted and available at many other regional tourist centers.  

IMAX Visitation - The IMAX theater at Tusayan has drawn over 31 million visitors in just 16 years.  Visitors pay $10 to watch a 35 minute film.  Annual visitation at the Grand Canyon runs just short of 5 million people per year.  This means that about 40% of the visitors to the Grand Canyon have visited the IMAX theater.

Expected visitation at the Page Paleontological Science Center - 20% of the visitors to the Glen Canyon Recreational Area.  2.5 million x 0.2 = 500,000 visitors per year.   This is a conservative estimate since visitation to the Carl Hayden Visitor Center represents about 35% of the total visitor traffic.

Strategic Location is Important - Siting the Science Center along Highway 89 is critical to the success of the Science Center.  Visitation to the IMAX theater runs as high as 40% and visitation to the Carl Hayden Visitor Center was 35% in recent years.   Visitation rates this high are directly attributable to the attraction's highway location, the fact that visitor arrives at their destination after a long journey and that there are no or little competitive attractions.   Highway visibility is very important factor in stopping visitor movement.  Museums that are off the beaten path are at a very distinct marketing disadvantage that are difficult to overcome.

Funding Opportunities

City of Page - 5 acres highway frontage (donated or lease agreement) - The City of Page has several 5 acre parcels of highway 98 frontage along the Golf Course and in the general area near the NPS Headquarters building.  At one time, the City of Page considered donating acreage to ADOT for a rest area along this stretch of the highway.  Alternatively, the City might be willing to lease the acreage.  The Page Paleontological Science Center would benefit the City of Page in many ways.  Sales tax would be paid on an estimated annual revenue of $2.5 million dollars. 

Grants for Rural Area Economic Development

Grants for New Economy Economic Development

Grants for Scientific Interpretation

Grants for using native American artwork in interpretative displays

Grants for educational collaborations

Corporate sponsorship

Private donations

Donated labor and scholarly expertise

Co-funding and/or collaboration with other institutions


Revenue Streams

Admission into Museum - $3 per adult, $1 per child.  Expected annual visitation of 500,000 = $1,000,000 per year in admission fares.

Motion Simulation Rides - $5 per person.  Expected annual 400 per day summer, 100 per day winter.  Annual # of rides = 90,000 @ $5 per ride = $450,000 per year in admission fares

These are very conservative numbers.  The IMAX theater at Tusayan has drawn over 31 million visitors in just 16 years.  Visitors pay $10 to watch a 35 minute film.   Annual visitation at the Grand Canyon runs just short of 5 million people per year.   This means that about 40% of the visitors to the Grand Canyon have visited the IMAX theater.

Gift Shop Retail Sales - $2 per person = $1,000,000 per year.  This amount is double that taken in from Glen Canyon Natural History Association book sales which suffers from a limited retail space, a restricted inventory selection and competition from the other tourist retail outlets.  It is reasonable to assume increased revenues at the Page Paleontological Science Center since its retail space would be larger and the product line would be more unique, creative and imaginative.  Product sales would also be enhanced as the Science Center's interpretative exhibits could be expected to stimulate interest and curiosity which would carry over into retail purchases.

Membership fees - 250 members at $25 = $6,250

Office Space rental - It is possible that the Glen Canyon Natural History Association would relocate it's office space to the Science Center @ $300/month = $3,600 per year.

Outdoor field experiences - 100 people @ $500 = $50,000

Private donations and grants - Unknown but can be significant.

Summary of Potential Revenues
Annual Gross (conservative):

Science Center                                     $1,000,000
Motion Simulation Rides                           450,000
Gift Shop Retail                                       1,000,000
Office Space rental                                         3,600
Membership/Field Trips                               56,250
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Total Annual Gross Revenue           $2,509,850
(does not including private donations)

 

Marketing Considerations

The average consumer is more entertainment-savvy these days, and traditional offerings may no longer be enough.  Many older museums rely too much on static, unimaginative displays that do little to actively engage the visitor.   Today's consumers expect to be entertained, dazzled and educated.  High-tech strategies are the way to do it.  The Page Paleontological Science Center would embrace the concept of combining interpretative education with entertainment.  

Software-driven attractions allow operators to create marketable new experiences without incurring the huge costs associated with "hard rides" such as rollercoasters,etc.  The key is to plan an entertainment offering that can be kept fresh and easily re-themed to to attract repeat visitation.

A growing trend across the USA and around the world is to group traditional leisure activities like restaurants, shops, and movie theatres, with ride simulation and other high-tech attractions that serve as key entertainment draws.

The Science Center is perfectly situated to take advantage of the off season market.   Field trips, hiking and other strenuous outdoor experiences are more suited to off the season and these along with the general Science Center experienced could be packaged and marketed with low-priced lodging accommodations and other cultural events such as the Native American living museum and bird watching (condors and waterfowl on the Colorado River).  Increased tourist traffic in the off season has long been an economic development goal of the City of Page and the Chamber of Commerce.

Construction Considerations

The vision is to construct a 15,000 square-foot facility that would house:

The size of the facility is kept manageable since (unlike many other paleontological and archeological facilities) that is no need for separate specimen laboratory and storage areas which can consume a very significant amount of space resources.  The Page Paleontological Science Center would focus more on interpretation and collaborated funding efforts with other institutions where the bulk of the specimens would be cleaned, analyzed and stored.


Motion Simulation Ride Hardware

The IWERKS 8-Seat Electric Motion Base features an emerging high-tech design and ergonomically designed seating. 4D special effects like wind, sound, and lightning integrated into the seat design make this motion base truly state of the art. This state-of-the-art 6-axis motion base fits more people into a smaller footprint than ever before - making IWERKS the choice in a whole new dimension of 2D, 3D and 4D family entertainment.

Available in 8 seat to over 100 seat theater configurations. Under 1,000 sq. ft. required for 8-seat theater including ticketing and pre-show areas!

The motion base has minimal facility impact and requires no hydraulic plumbing - it can be powered with only 120 volts.

Capacity ranges from 160 to 240 people per hour.